A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
